A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
